Will we meet the future of mobility in the next decade?
A few weeks ago, while visiting California to give a conference, I came across the mobility services offered by Waymo on the streets of San Francisco. For the same reason, I visited several cities in China a few weeks later, to find that they also have well developed mobility services.
The interest of the public and vehicle manufacturers in these systems is not new. It all began with the development of the so-called “driver assistance systems” in the mid-twentieth century, with the “cruise system” (1948) to set the speed of the car on long journeys, allowing the foot that we use to control the speed to rest.
Later, in 1984, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) would launch two challenges (in 1984 and 2005) for developers of advanced driver assistance systems to present their projects and test its operation.
Since then, and until the beginning of the current decade, large companies dedicated millions of resources to transforming the automotive industry into a service provider. In a process like that experienced by other productive sectors, instead of producing vehicles for personal use, the industry would provide mobility services.
That is why it is said that the current one is the greatest transformation process in the history of the industry. Electric and autonomous cars were a pipe dream a few years ago and automotive safety consisted of reducing the consequences of accidents. Today, electric cars are popular, autonomous cars provide services in the United States and China (and soon in other latitudes) and vehicle safety systems are dedicated to preventing accidents.
The architecture of autonomous vehicles is based on a tripod made up of sensors, radars and light detection and ranging technology (LIDAR). These three elements, combined with specific software, determine the level of safety with which an autonomous vehicle operates.
The degree of vehicle autonomy follows a convention established by the Society of Automobile Engineers (SAE) that lists 5 levels of autonomy.
At level 0, a driver is responsible for controlling and supervising the vehicle. When different driver assistance systems are used, such as cruise control, the driver moves to level 1. The intervention of systems that also control the steering wheel (such as those that warn with a beep when we deviate from the lane or steering wheels that firm up and resist sudden movements when changing lanes on a highway) classify vehicles in levels 2 and 3.
SAE levels 4 and 5 are reserved for vehicles controlled by the autonomous system that governs them, with very little or no intervention from the human driver.
Although it is still early for getting into a “robot taxi” to become a common thing, the autonomous mobility market is growing rapidly. McKinsey has published reports estimating that it is a market that could generate revenues of US$ 300 or 400 billion by 2035.
In addition to Waymo, which offers driverless taxis in San Francisco, Los Angeles (California) and Phoenix (Arizona) and Cruise (GM), which also operates in the latter, as well as in Dallas and Houston (Texas) and includes home delivery services, a dozen other companies are offering mobility services in the United States and China, or are preparing to do so.
For example, Poni.ai, has received an investment from the Neom Investment Fund to land there and in the Arab countries and has signed agreements to offer its mobility services in Luxembourg.
Zoox, which claims to build robo-taxis, “for passengers, not drivers,” was licensed in 2023 by the Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles to offer services (based on an electric “robotaxi” with no steering wheel or pedals to command it) on public streets.
In 2023, Autora Innovation (originally from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania) launched a connection between Dallas and Houston (Texas) for its autonomous trucks and tested them during this year, traveling at a speed of 65 miles per hour. It plans to launch its commercial autonomous transport operation later this year.
AutoX is the second company to obtain a license to operate robotaxis in California and operates this service on public roads in Shenzhen and Shanghai. Nuro, meanwhile, operates autonomous vehicles in California and Texas. Another company, May Mobility, is offering mobility services from mid-year in Eden Prairie, Minnesota, in partnership with SouthWest Transit (the transit agency that serves the southwestern metro region of Minneapolis).
Tesla recently announced that it will launch a robotaxi called Cybercab, which will cost less than $30,000, as well as a “robovan” that could carry up to 20 people by 2027. The vehicles will have no steering wheel or pedals.
Aptiv in Ireland, Valeo in France and VolvoCar Corporation in Germany are other companies listed among the key players in the market. They are joined by Mobileye (Intel) from Israel, Yandex Self Driving Group from the Russian Federation and Hyundai in South Korea.
A couple of months ago, Reuters reported that Build Your Dreams (BYD), the Chinese electric car giant, signed an agreement with Huawei to use its autonomous driving software (Quiankun).
Changan, the Chongqing car manufacturer, obtained 17 licenses for SAE level 3 vehicles in 2023 and is actively participating in the race to develop autonomous vehicles. Guangzhou Automobile Group, for its part, is promoting the EMPOW as the first sports car model to operate on the ADiGO intelligent driving system.
In China, Baidu is probably the key player in the industry, with more than 400 of its Apollo Go robotaxis in the city of Wuhan since 2022 and plans to reach 1,000 units by the end of this year. It has already extended its services to 10 other cities and prestigious publications such as The Economist consider Baidu to be ahead of Tesla.
According to Fortune Business Insights, the global autonomous vehicle market size was valued at $1,500.3 billion in 2022 and is projected to grow from $1,921.1 billion in 2023 to $13,632.4 billion in 2030, with a CAGR of 32.3% over that period.
