Just when the interaction of Digitalization, Big Data, Artificial Intelligence and Biotechnology promise a new era for humanity, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic shakes us to the ground; what are the keys to the future?
To find out we need to face three crises: on health, economic and leadership. All three are intimately linked and feed on each other.
The health crisis is evident, with 9 million infected and almost half a million deaths in 6 months, even though half of the world population was kept in quarantine for at least one month.
The epicenter of the pandemic is now shifting from developed to emerging and less prosperous countries, which are observing quarantine for several months.
The economic crisis is verified in the likely 6% contraction of global GDP this year. World trade could fall between 13 and 32%. As a consequence, total hours worked will drop 10.5% (a loss equivalent to 300 million full-time jobs). Youth, the least qualified and informal activities are the most affected.
People living in extreme poverty would increase by 420 million. Those who suffer hunger would double to over 260 million. It is a setback of several decades in the fight against poverty and everything will worsen if a second wave of infections occurs. There is no possible economic recovery until we overcome the pandemic- Any dichotomy between health and economy must be completely ruled out.
And this is where the leadership crisis presents itself. A crisis of this scale requires seriousness, determination and courage. We have unattainable goals ahead without global coordination and cooperation.
We do not yet know in detail how COVID-19 causes serious levels of morbidity and mortality. To understand it, we must draw on the massive knowledge infrastructure (measurement of antibodies, evaluation of their functioning in the viral system, life cycle of the virus, etc.) accumulated since the 1918 pandemic.
The challenge we face is to deliver a coordinated response by gathering and applying that knowledge on a given problem in a short time. Our odds improve if scientists share information and knowledge.
Therefore, international coordination and cooperation are critical. We need a vaccine as soon as possible. It should be available to everyone, everywhere. At least we need an effective treatment quickly.
The same is true at the economic level. Developing countries will need $ 2.5 trillion to deal with the crisis. The issuance of IMF Special Drawing Rights could make $ 600 billion available quickly and another $ 1 trillion would be available in 2021.
Regional banks should increase their loan portfolio by US $ 200 trillion annually for 5 years (another US $ 1 trillion) and 76 countries of the International Development Association will need to restructure their external debt. Again, the need for coordinated global action is evident.
International institutions are not good or bad by themselves. They are just what their member states make of them. The World Health Organization, so widely criticized today, is the same organization that led the eradication of measles, a terrible plague, in the 1980s.
Just as the 2007/2008 global crisis gave birth to the Financial Stability Board to strengthen oversight of the international financial system and prevent further crises, this pandemic should be an opportunity to develop the institutions that help us prevent the next.
There was no shortage of warnings about the dangers of a pandemic. We did not take action. Let us not discuss now if we are going to overcome the hardships and suffering that lie ahead with more “state” or more “market”. We need more of both and, above all, the collective ingenuity to combine them intelligently and build the institutions that allow us to reach the future.
